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Amortized Filtering and Smoothing with Conditional Normalizing Flows
Cui, Tiangang, Feng, Xiaodong, Pei, Chenlong, Wan, Xiaoliang, Zhou, Tao
Bayesian filtering and smoothing for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems are fundamental yet challenging problems in many areas of science and engineering. In this work, we propose AFSF, a unified amortized framework for filtering and smoothing with conditional normalizing flows. The core idea is to encode each observation history into a fixed-dimensional summary statistic and use this shared representation to learn both a forward flow for the filtering distribution and a backward flow for the backward transition kernel. Specifically, a recurrent encoder maps each observation history to a fixed-dimensional summary statistic whose dimension does not depend on the length of the time series. Conditioned on this shared summary statistic, the forward flow approximates the filtering distribution, while the backward flow approximates the backward transition kernel. The smoothing distribution over an entire trajectory is then recovered by combining the terminal filtering distribution with the learned backward flow through the standard backward recursion. By learning the underlying temporal evolution structure, AFSF also supports extrapolation beyond the training horizon. Moreover, by coupling the two flows through shared summary statistics, AFSF induces an implicit regularization across latent state trajectories and improves trajectory-level smoothing. In addition, we develop a flow-based particle filtering variant that provides an alternative filtering procedure and enables ESS-based diagnostics when explicit model factors are available. Numerical experiments demonstrate that AFSF provides accurate approximations of both filtering distributions and smoothing paths.
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Notes on Forré's Notion of Conditional Independence and Causal Calculus for Continuous Variables
Recently, Forré (arXiv:2104.11547, 2021) introduced transitional conditional independence, a notion of conditional independence that provides a unified framework for both random and non-stochastic variables. The original paper establishes a strong global Markov property connecting transitional conditional independencies with suitable graphical separation criteria for directed mixed graphs with input nodes (iDMGs), together with a version of causal calculus for iDMGs in a general measure-theoretic setting. These notes aim to further illustrate the motivations behind this framework and its connections to the literature, highlight certain subtlies in the general measure-theoretic causal calculus, and extend the "one-line" formulation of the ID algorithm of Richardson et al. (Ann. Statist. 51(1):334--361, 2023) to the general measure-theoretic setting.
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'Uncanny Valley': ICE's Secret Expansion Plans, Palantir Workers' Ethical Concerns, and AI Assistants
In this episode of, our hosts dive into WIRED's scoop about a secret Trump administration campaign extending right into your backyard. This week, hosts Brian Barrett, Leah Feiger, and Zoë Schiffer discuss WIRED's big scoop on ICE's startling plans to expand to nearly every state in the US. Plus, a WIRED writer lets the viral AI assistant OpenClaw run his life for a week to give listeners a peek of what AI agents can and can't do. ICE Is Expanding Across the US at Breakneck Speed. Write to us at uncannyvalley@wired.com . You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . I want to continue a conversation that we started yesterday in Slack after work hours for some of us. And this is about the men's short program-- But very specifically want to pick up on the conversation where Zoë had very strong feelings about the results of men's figure skating. I feel like we need to back up because you and Leah authentically care about the Olympics so much and I think just know more about sports than I do. I deeply have never engaged with sports ever, just as a whole rule, as a category. It doesn't exist in my life. Say the lines, say the lines, Zoë, or I'm going to read them verbatim from slack. Wait, I don't even know what you're talking about. I was merely surprised when I watched because the Americans went, I thought, wow, that guy basically fell over and was clumping around the ice, and then Japan went, and they were sailing around like little swans, and then when the gold medal came, it went to the Americans. I couldn't believe what had happened. No one else seemed outraged. For a little backup for our non-ice skating Olympic fans, I was always referring to Ilia Malinin, who a number of publications and sports experts say might actually be one of the greatest figure skaters of all time.
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Mutual Information Collapse Explains Disentanglement Failure in $β$-VAEs
Vu, Minh, Wan, Xiaoliang, Wei, Shuangqing
The $β$-VAE is a foundational framework for unsupervised disentanglement, using $β$ to regulate the trade-off between latent factorization and reconstruction fidelity. Empirically, however, disentanglement performance exhibits a pervasive non-monotonic trend: benchmarks such as MIG and SAP typically peak at intermediate $β$ and collapse as regularization increases. We demonstrate that this collapse is a fundamental information-theoretic failure, where strong Kullback-Leibler pressure promotes marginal independence at the expense of the latent channel's semantic informativeness. By formalizing this mechanism in a linear-Gaussian setting, we prove that for $β> 1$, stationarity-induced dynamics trigger a spectral contraction of the encoder gain, driving latent-factor mutual information to zero. To resolve this, we introduce the $λβ$-VAE, which decouples regularization pressure from informational collapse via an auxiliary $L_2$ reconstruction penalty $λ$. Extensive experiments on dSprites, Shapes3D, and MPI3D-real confirm that $λ> 0$ stabilizes disentanglement and restores latent informativeness over a significantly broader range of $β$, providing a principled theoretical justification for dual-parameter regularization in variational inference backbones.
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Rare, deep-sea encounter: California scientists observe 'extraordinary' seven-arm octopus
Things to Do in L.A. Tap to enable a layout that focuses on the article. Rare, deep-sea encounter: California scientists observe'extraordinary' seven-arm octopus On November 6, 2025, MBARI Senior Scientist Steven Haddock and researchers in MBARI's Biodiversity and Biooptics Team observed a seven-arm octopus (Haliphron atlanticus) during an expedition in Monterey Bay with MBARI's remotely operated vehicle at a depth of approximately 700 meters. This is read by an automated voice. Please report any issues or inconsistencies here . California scientists captured rare footage of a seven-arm octopus eating a jellyfish.
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LLM & HPC:Benchmarking DeepSeek's Performance in High-Performance Computing Tasks
Nader, Noujoud, Diehl, Patrick, Brandt, Steve, Kaiser, Hartmut
Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 and DeepSeek, have been applied to a wide range of domains in software engineering. However, their potential in the context of High-Performance Computing (HPC) much remains to be explored. This paper evaluates how well DeepSeek, a recent LLM, performs in generating a set of HPC benchmark codes: a conjugate gradient solver, the parallel heat equation, parallel matrix multiplication, DGEMM, and the STREAM triad operation. We analyze DeepSeek's code generation capabilities for traditional HPC languages like Cpp, Fortran, Julia and Python. The evaluation includes testing for code correctness, performance, and scaling across different configurations and matrix sizes. We also provide a detailed comparison between DeepSeek and another widely used tool: GPT-4. Our results demonstrate that while DeepSeek generates functional code for HPC tasks, it lags behind GPT-4, in terms of scalability and execution efficiency of the generated code.
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Exploring Spiking Neural Networks for Binary Classification in Multivariate Time Series at the Edge
Ghawaly, James, Nicholson, Andrew, Schuman, Catherine, Diez, Dalton, Young, Aaron, Witherspoon, Brett
We present a general framework for training spiking neural networks (SNNs) to perform binary classification on multivariate time series, with a focus on step-wise prediction and high precision at low false alarm rates. The approach uses the Evolutionary Optimization of Neuromorphic Systems (EONS) algorithm to evolve sparse, stateful SNNs by jointly optimizing their architectures and parameters. Inputs are encoded into spike trains, and predictions are made by thresholding a single output neuron's spike counts. We also incorporate simple voting ensemble methods to improve performance and robustness. To evaluate the framework, we apply it with application-specific optimizations to the task of detecting low signal-to-noise ratio radioactive sources in gamma-ray spectral data. The resulting SNNs, with as few as 49 neurons and 66 synapses, achieve a 51.8% true positive rate (TPR) at a false alarm rate of 1/hr, outperforming PCA (42.7%) and deep learning (49.8%) baselines. A three-model any-vote ensemble increases TPR to 67.1% at the same false alarm rate. Hardware deployment on the microCaspian neuromorphic platform demonstrates 2mW power consumption and 20.2ms inference latency. We also demonstrate generalizability by applying the same framework, without domain-specific modification, to seizure detection in EEG recordings. An ensemble achieves 95% TPR with a 16% false positive rate, comparable to recent deep learning approaches with significant reduction in parameter count.
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